Looking back, seems that the analysis was correct. The same trend continues, Google Apps gain popularity, Microsoft Exchange loses it.
What is even more interesting, Google Apps is now at the breaking point with Lotus Notes:
This fight would be much more interesting to behold - from what I've seen, IBM and its Lotus Notes is rooted much more deeply than Microsoft and its Exchange ever was. Whereas Microsoft definitely had wider exposure, ot was shallow - Exchange doesn't scale well. Notes, on the other hand, scales better, has much deeper penetration, bigger clients and higher cost to exit. In addition, whereas Microsoft alienates customers on a daily basis, IBM has penetrated the customer base - it's a consulting company now, remember? This increases the cost of exit even more - it is very questionable who is going to be in bigger trouble if a contract with IBM is suddenly terminated.
Oh, this is going to be painful. Let me go get my popcorn.
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