The Second Coming of iPhone

Everyone and their uncle is making predictions about the fate of iPhone on Verizon and, in that light, Android. Let me make mine (consciously avoiding citations pro or con, and deep technical issues that are already aplenty):

• There will be an initial surge of people that are just out of contract (or were waiting for iPhone) on Verizon;
• There will be an initial surge of people that will switch to Verizon because they didn't want to switch to AT&T, but want an iPhone, who are just out of contract or were waiting for iPhone;
• This surge will be somewhat sustained for the next few months as more people come out of contract;
• The surge will then be dampened as they realize that iPhone (or Verizon, or iPhone on Verizon) is not all it cracked up to be, and relay their experiences to their friends;
• Android acceptance curve will not be significantly affected because the target audience and market segments for Android and iPhone are different.

UPDATE (2011/02/14): Initial surge was weak, with two major reasons to blame: cold weather and people waiting for iPhone 5. Of course, we'll live to see whether more Verizon iPhones will be sold as the weather gets warmer, and what would be the iPhone 5 impact.

UPDATE (2011/04/04): Verizon iPhone does little to stop Android.

UPDATE (2011/06/30): Verizon iPhone sales are already slowing down, analyst says

UPDATE (2011/08/05): Android owns 40% of the US smartphone market, no wonder people want to strangle it

iPhone vs. Android: Survival of the Fittest

Forget the price - no matter how cheap Android phones get, there will always be the emo audience for iPhone.

Forget the feature set of the platform - they're roughly identical by now.

It is all a matter of evolutionary pressure now.

Android devices are created, pushed to market, accepted or rejected by it, and die or flourish at extremely fast pace, even when there is a risk of cannibalization of different products from the same manufacturer (does Nexus S kill Galaxy S? absolutely). The competition is fierce, the elimination is ruthless.

Apple devices, on the other hand, are lovingly created by the mind of The Great Chairman, and accepted unambiguously (simply because there is no other choice) by the gang of loyal followers and wannabes living within the reality distortion field.

I don't think that's enough feedback to improve.

The ever brandished threat of fragmentation is not the hand of doom, but the blessing in disguise, along with lack or presence of LED indicators, or physical keyboard, or sensor buttons, or touch buttons, or front camera, or flash, or dedicated camera shutter button, or whatever else comes to your mind. It is you that is the deciding factor in the outcome.

My prediction at this time is that Apple will be forced to retreat into a niche of being just one of dozens smartphone and tablet manufacturers. Unless -

And so the only way for the iPhone to “beat” Android would be for Apple to either open iOS up in the same way that Android is, or to create a huge variety of iPhones spread across the spectrum in terms of features and price. Neither of those things is going to happen. -- MG Siegler

And on the other hand, just like he says, there will be a huge variety of Android phones spread across the spectrum of features, quality and price. Is this good? I'd say it is a double edged sword. Whereas Apple's quality is well known, in Android market you have to take calculated risk - it is, by definition, an early adopter market, any smartphone older than a couple of months is already obsolete. But at least you're voting with your dollars to move the whole population into the direction you want.

Let the fittest survive.

${mobile-device} + Squeezebox

Following the trail of ${mobile-device} + ${appliance}, it would be interesting to see what applications already exist for Squeezebox remote control. Hence, this is a sticky page that will be updated as I find more and more applications - with additional links to reviews of applications for hardware I have in my possession.

iPhone

• iPeng (review)
• Squeemote
• Squidgy (review)

BlackBerry

• none found so far

Android

• none found so far

Android vs. iPhone: What Part Of The Message You Don't Understand?

Reading SDK shoot-out: Android vs. iPhone vividly reminded me of a joke I've first heard in mid-nineties:

In seventies, IT managers were choosing VMS over Unix.
In eighties, IT managers were choosing Novell over Unix.
In nineties, IT managers were choosing Windows NT over Unix.

What part of the message you don't understand?

One quote from the article: "If you can't get coders on board, you're sunk."

Guess what, I don't have a Mac. Neither did three startups I've worked for. Neither did three corporations I've worked for. And neither of us (me, the startups and the corporations) have any intent to buy a Mac, despite an overwhelming desire to have one someday.

I've placed my bets.

BlackBerry App Store: Too Little. Too Late.

Just like I was saying, RIM *is* afraid. They're opening their App Store.

In March 2009.

Let me see, that'll be roughly five months after Android Market was launched, and I don't even care to count how many months after Apple's App Store.

That might just as well be the definition of "irrelevant".

They were caught off guard.

Twice.

Difficult to say what the corporate blokes were thinking all this time - the best explanation I can come up with is that they (correctly, I should say) didn't see iPhone as a threat to their business model (mostly corporate clients with thick wallets and expensive long term contracts), but totally underestimated the momentum that Android has created.

I don't think this is going to save RIM in the long run. The rules of engagement are pretty simple: lead, follow, or get out of the way.

They can't lead anymore.
They don't want to get out of the way.
The only choice left is follow.

Go ahead and release Android core on your platform already, I'd be the first to buy the result.

${mobile-device - iPhone} + ${appliance}

As if there were many doubts before... But now that Apple completely shut off access to App Store for those they don't like, I don't think I'd be trying to architect a mobile application that takes iPhone platform into account, except probably for morbid curiosity.

Update: Yup, I'm not the only one that thinks so.

${mobile-device} + ${appliance}, TiVo edition

Remember this?

Let's start counting -

• iPhone + everything
• BlackBerry + TiVo

More to come, I'm sure..

${mobile-device} + ${appliance}, iPhone edition

Remember this? Told ya...